Bets

With Mike Dudas: Foursquare will have a Slide-like exit. Winner gets dinner at the place of his choosing. Slide was purchased by Google for $182 million, a come down from the $500 million valuation at the last round. Because we don’t know full cap table with preferences, we’re ignoring those. If Foursquare does worse than Slide, I win. If Foursquare does better than Slide, Mike wins. (No expiration, bet continues until Foursquare has an exit.)

With Keith Rabois. I bet that Apple Watch will sell fewer than 10 million units in first 4 reported quarters, beginning with the quarter in which it ships. If not reported separately in the fourth quarter of the bet, I win. Stakes: $500.

With Raja Doddala: I bet that Apple Watch will sell fewer than 10 million units in first 4 reported quarters, beginning with the quarter in which it ships. If not reported separately in the fourth quarter of the bet, I win. Stakes: Dinner at SPQR or Bourbon Steak, winner’s choice.

With Mike Dudas: Independent PayPal will be below its first day closing pricing one calendar year from its first public trade. If the one year mark is a weekend, bet is settled based on closing price on previous trading day. Stakes: Bottle of wine of winner’s choosing, up to $100 + shipping.

With Mike Dudas: Independent PayPal will be 15% below its first day closing price one year out. Mike bets it is 10% higher. (In between means no winner.) If the one year mark is a weekend, bet is settled based on closing price on previous trading day. Stakes: Bottle of wine of winner’s choosing, up to $100 + shipping.

Think I’m wrong about a company? Suggest a bet on Twitter.

Previous bets:

Won vs. Ryan Kim – Yahoo’s mobile incompetence. Mexican lunch or dinner in NYC.

Won vs. Felix Salmon – Groupon / Priceline market cap ratio. I kicked Felix’s ass on this one. We bet that the ratio would be 30%. (I had the under.) It ended at 5.5%. I should have done the double down at 15%. Dinner at Jean George. PAID

Lost vs. Felix Salmon – Square being acquired. Dinner at SPQR. PAID

Lost vs. Paul Kedrosky – Based on the date Groupon’s valuation would fall below the $6 billion Google had offered. I missed this by 1 day! Dinner in SF at Boulevard. PAID

Lost vs. Alex Lawrence – A derivative bet based on bet with Paul. Steak dinner, if Alex ever shows up in SF to claim it.

Won vs. Josh Puckett – A $100 gift card to KLwines because I didn’t see many Square Stands. PAID

Won vs. Alex Lawrence: Foursquare will exit for $1 billion or more by March 23, 2015. If Foursquare hits that target, Alex wins. If Foursquare sells for less, folds before that date or doesn’t exit by that date, I win. Winner gets a donation of $500 to the charity of his choice.

Lost vs. Alex Lawrence: Square will exit for <$800 million. Alex bet that Square will exit for $1 billion. $800 million to $1 billion is a dead zone; no one wins. Stakes: Dinner in Salt Lake City or San Francisco, winner’s pick.